Electric vehicles (EVs) are on track to dominate global sales of passenger cars and buses by 2040 and to encroach significantly on the market for vans and short-distance trucking, according to a recent report from research firm BloombergNEF (BNEF).
Based on analysis of the evolving economics in different vehicle segments and geographical markets, BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 shows EVs taking up 57% of global passenger car sales by 2040, which is slightly higher than the firm forecast a year ago. Electric buses are set to hold 81% of municipal bus sales by the same date.
For the first time, BNEF has incorporated in its forecast detailed work on the commercial vehicle market. These projections show electric models taking 56% of light commercial vehicle sales in Europe, the U.S. and China within the next two decades, plus 31% of the medium commercial market.